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The Labor Market Returns to Delaying Pregnancy Yana Gallen, Juanna Schrøter Joensen, Eva Rye Johansen, and Gregory F. Veramendi With EU fertility hitting a record low of 1.34 in 2024, understanding the economic trade-offs of motherhood is crucial. Using Swedish data on contraceptive failures as a natural experiment, this paper isolates the career costs of unplanned childbirth. An unplanned first child causes a 25 percent earnings drop over six years and lasting occupational downgrades – especially for young or studying women. Delaying pregnancy by one year, however, reduces this penalty by 2.5 percentage points. As planned births cause smaller disruptions, contraceptive access and strategic birth timing remain vital for narrowing the gender pay gap.

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Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, David J. Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln, and Jonas Jessen Special Education Substantially Improves Learning: Evidence from Three States Stephanie Coffey, Joshua S. Goodman, Amy Ellen Schwartz, Leanna Stiefel, Marcus A. Winters, and Yunee H. Yoon From Moderates to Extremes: How Immigration Polarizes American Politics Johannes Matzat, Axel Dreher, Sarah Langlotz, and Christopher Parsons Mission Possible: The Collection of High-Quality Data Can Celebi, Christine Exley, Soren Harrs, Hannu Kivimaki, Marta Serra-Garcia, and Jeffrey Yusof → Other CESifo Working Papers → Working Paper Submission Form

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The Iran Crisis Drags Down German Business Sentiment   German business sentiment continues to deteriorate. The ifo Business Climate Index dropped to 84.4 in April, following a decline from 88.4 in February to 86.4 in March and hitting its lowest level since May 2020. Firms are increasingly pessimistic about their current situations and future outlooks. The German economy is heavily impacted by the Iran crisis, with gloom spanning all major sectors. In particular, manufacturing increasingly reports supply bottlenecks, logistics is under pressure, and retail fears inflation.

Other Indicators

ifo Export Expectations in Germany Increase Slightly (April 2026)

Job Cuts in Germany Slow Down Slightly (March 2026)

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Upcoming Events

Venice Summer Institute 2026 Island of San Servolo, Venice (Italy) | 19 – 25 June 2026 The CESifo Venice Summer Institute, held annually in cooperation with Venice International University, focuses on themes of current interest in European and global economic policy. This year's program features the following workshops:

2nd Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues Conference: “Globalization and Fiscal Populism” 19 – 20 June 2026   Managing Editor: Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan (Brown University).

Big Data in the Global Economy 22 – 23 June 2026   Organizers: Feodora Teti (ifo Institute) and Andrew Bernard (Dartmouth College). Keynote Speakers: Paola Conconi (University of Oxford) and Andreas Moxnes (BI Norwegian Business School).

Green Energy Transition and the Role of Energy in the Macroeconomy 22 – 23 June 2026   Organizers: Aleksandra Friedl (ifo Institute) and Christian Traeger (University of Oslo). Keynote Speakers: Catherine Wolfram (MIT), Valentina Bosetti (Bocconi, EIEE), Stephane Hallegatte (World Bank).

Workforce Adjustments to Technological Change 22 – 23 June 2026   Organizers: Cäcilia vom Baur (Goethe University Frankfurt) ) and Anna M. Salomons (Tilburg University). Keynote Speakers: David Autor (MIT) and Anders Humlum (University of Chicago).

The Economics of Children in a Changing World 24 – 25 June 2026   Organizers: Joachim Winter (LMU Munich) and Janet Currie (Yale University). Keynote Speakers: Gabriella Conti (University College London) and Hannes Schwandt (Northwestern University).

The Economics of Gender and the Family: Challenges in Past, Present, and Future 24 – 25 June 2026   Organizers: Helmut Rainer (ifo Institute & LMU Munich), Gordon Dahl (UC San Diego), and Pia Heckl (ifo Institute). Keynote Speakers: Matthias Doepke (London School of Economics) and Barbara Petrongolo (University of Oxford).

Managing the State: A New Look at Bureaucrats and Public Administration 24 – 25 June 2026   Organizers: Nadja Dwenger (University of Hohenheim), Florian Englmaier (LMU Munich), and Anna Gumpert (University of Tübingen).

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Munich Economic Debates 2026

Munich Economic Debates 2026 Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Munich

“Europe’s Fiscal Squeeze: Tackling Rising Spending Pressures” by Helge Berger and Andrew Edward Hodge 13 July 2026 | 18:00 – 19:30 CET/CEST   Helge Berger and Andrew Hodge (International Monetary Fund), will discuss “Europe’s Fiscal Squeeze: Tackling Rising Spending Pressures.” Registration will open at the end of June. The lecture will be held in English and livestreamed. The discussion will be held in German.

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“Demographic Change: Challenge and Opportunity for the Healthcare System of Tomorrow” by Heyo Krömer 20 July 2026 | 18:00 – 19:30 CET/CEST   Aging, a shortage of skilled workers, and exploding costs have a profound impact on our healthcare system – on patient requirements, staff availability, and care structures, among other things. Heyo Klaus Kroemer, Chairman of the Executive Board of Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin since 2019, talks about how politics and society can meet these challenges. He discusses why prevention is a crucial lever for making healthcare sustainable and fit for the future. He also sheds light on the contribution made by digitalization and artificial intelligence to be able to meet future supply requirements more efficiently. The lecture will be held in German and livestreamed.

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Upcoming Conferences and Workshops

Area Conference on Global Economy CESifo, Munich | 22 – 23 May 2026   Scientific organizer: Peter Egger (ETH Zurich). Keynote speakers: Meredith Crowley (University of Cambridge) and Felix Tintelnot (Duke University).

Junior Workshop on Labor Economics CESifo, Munich | 28 May 2026   Scientific organizers: Pia Heckl, Giuseppe Di Giacomo, Luca Perdoni (ifo Institute), and Gordon Dahl (University of California, San Diego).

Area Conference on Labor Economics CESifo, Munich | 29 – 30 May 2026   Scientific organizers: Gordon Dahl (UC San Diego), Helmut Rainer (ifo Institute). Keynote speakers: Martha Bailey (University of California, Los Angeles).

Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Symposium: Economic Effects of Social Insurance and the Social Safety Net CESifo, Munich | 8 – 10 June 2026   Scientific organizers: Hilary Hoynes (University of California, Berkeley and NBER) and Andreas Peichl (ifo Intitute, LMU and CESifo). Keynote speakers: Johannes Spinnewijn (London School of Economics) and Stefanie Stantcheva (Harvard University).

Area Conference on Macro with Micro Data CESifo, Munich | 12 – 13 June 2026   Scientific organizers: Monika Piazzesi (Stanford University) and Andreas Peichl (ifo Intitute, LMU and CESifo). Keynote speakers: Yueran Ma (University of Chicago) and Ludwig Straub (Harvard University).

Doctoral Workshop on the Economics of Digitization Telecom Paris | 15 – 16 June 2026   Local scientific organizer: Marc Bourreau (Telecom Paris) Keynote speaker: José Luis Moraga (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam).

Workshop on Digital Platforms: Methods, Policy and Politics University of Warwick | 19 – 20 June 2026   Scientific organizers: Annali Casanueva-Artis (ifo Institute) and Mateusz Stalinski (University of Warwick). Keynote speakers: Elliott Ash (ETH Zurich) and Ruben Enikolopov (Universitat Pompeu Fabra).

Junior Workshop on International Economics CESifo, Munich | 17 – 18 July 2026   Scientific organizers: Andreas Baur, Lisandra Flach, Dorothee Hillrichs, Feodora Teti (ifo Institute), Carsten Eckel, Etienne Guigue, Martina Magli, Augusto Ospital, and Claudia Steinwender (LMU Munich). Keynote speaker: Amit Khandelwal (Yale University).

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Call for Papers

Area Conference on Behavioral Economics CESifo, Munich | 23 – 24 October 2026   Submission deadline: 21 June 2026.

CESifo/CEMIR Junior Workshop on Migration Research CESifo, Munich | 29 – 30 October 2026   Submission deadline: 10 July 2026.

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Highlights from Past Events

Munich Economic Debates 2026: “Robotics for Demographic Change – Can Technology Help Ease the Burden on Younger and Older Generations in the Future?” by Alexander König Munich | 23 March 2026 AI has taken center stage in the tech debate while other domains have faded into the background, as their developments seem less exciting – at least on the surface. Robotics may look like one of those domains. But in his lecture, Alexander König, Professor of Robotics and Assistive Systems at the Technical University of Munich, explained why, precisely thanks to the progress of large language models, robotics is also poised for takeoff. He also showed how the widespread adoption of assistive robots at decreasing costs could revolutionize healthcare and caregiving. What is uncertain is whether Europe will be able to produce these robots on its own. To hear what he had to say on the matter, watch the full lecture.

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Richard Musgrave Lecture: “Measuring the Welfare Impacts of Government Policies” by Nathaniel Hendren CESifo & International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF), Munich 15 April 2026 The primary goal when evaluating a policy is to determine if it achieved its intended objective and assess its impact. However, one must also consider the policy’s far-reaching implications. For example, a tax cut that benefits one group but indirectly harms another more severely or costs more than it benefits will ultimately have a negative impact on welfare. An even more challenging yet crucial task is to determine which policy, among different options, would most effectively improve societal well-being. In his Richard Musgrave Lecture, Professor Nathaniel Hendren outlined a framework for doing exactly that, by harmonizing welfare measurements and enabling comparisons across different domains and policies – for example, subsidies and taxation, education, and the environment. Watch impressions and the recording of Professor Hendren’s lecture here.

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EconPol Forum 02/2026

Policy Debate of the Hour   Artificial intelligence (AI) is having a profound transformative impact on the way people work, businesses operate, and economies compete globally. Against a backdrop of structural productivity decline, the new issue of EconPol Forum poses the critical question of whether Europe can harness AI as a driver of growth. How well is the continent positioned to seize the productivity benefits of AI while addressing its potentially radical implications for the labor market? The authors address these questions by offering estimates of the expected productivity gains and breaking down the varying impacts of AI across countries, sectors, and workers. The issue examines the key drivers of AI adoption, such as beliefs, digital infrastructure, and company size, as well as its medium-term effects on economic growth and employment and its implications in terms of market competition. Balanced regulation, workforce reskilling, and strengthening digital and innovation ecosystems are just a few of the policy priorities discussed. Read the entire magazine or individual articles by clicking the links below. How Europe Can Capture the AI Growth Dividend Unlocking Export Gains: The Role of AI and AI-Related Technologies AI and Trade: Why Europe Cannot Afford to Lag on Adoption Firms’ AI Productivity Beliefs and Adoption Decisions The Effects of AI on Economic Growth and Employment: Results from the Economic Experts Survey AI and Europe’s Labor Market When AI Enters the Game: Cooperation and Predictability in Repeated Interactions

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Economic Policy and Its Impact Benefits of Early Integration: Birthright Citizenship and Youth Crime The default response to rising youth crime is often tougher law enforcement. Examining Germany’s 2000 citizenship reform, this article shows that birthright citizenship can reduce youth crime among second- and third-generation immigrants in other ways: by enhancing opportunities, a sense of belonging, and social trust.

Institutions Across the World Corporate Tax Spillovers in an Interconnected Economy: Investment Effects Within Multinationals and Along Global Supply Chains When it comes to the taxation of multinational corporations, the focus of policy is often on profit shifting – the practice of moving profits to countries with more favorable tax rates. This piece sheds light on a topic that is often overlooked by policymakers – the negative impact of corporate tax hikes across countries and along global supply chains.

Big-Data-Based Economic Insights Under Strain: International Insights into Electricity Grid Outages The April 2025 power outage that affected Spain and Portugal was a reminder of how critical power grids are to the economy. But what are the actual economic and social costs of outages? What role does climate change play in the frequency of blackouts? And how can power grids become more resilient?

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Upcoming Policy Briefs

Robots and Non-Participation: Evidence and Lessons from the US and Europe The fast development and spread of AI across various industries is raising growing concerns about its impact on jobs. An upcoming Policy Brief will look at how another technological wave – that of industrial robots – has affected labor force participation over the past 30 years, highlighting differences, similarities, and lessons for the present.

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Guests

Each month, CESifo and CES host guest researchers from different parts of the world.

William C. Dodds, Tulane University, is visiting CES 18 May – 12 Jun 2026 Alessandra Fenizia, The George Washington University, is visiting CES 26 May – 12 Jun 2026 Nicholas Li, The George Washington University, is visiting CES 26 May – 12 Jun 2026 Gordon B. Dahl, University of California, San Diego, is visiting CESifo 27 May – 5 Jun 2026 Kristian Behrens, Université du Québec à Montréal, is visiting CESifo 1 – 5 Jun 2026 Benjamin Bushong, Michigan State University, is visiting CES 1 – 26 Jun 2026 Elizabeth U. Cascio, University of Darthmouth, is visiting CESifo 7 – 13 Jun 2026 Monika Piazzesi, Stanford University, is visiting CESifo 8 – 13 Jun 2026 Martin Schneider, Stanford University, is visiting CESifo 8 – 13 Jun 2026 Yuan Zi, Geneva Graduate Institute, is visiting CES 8 – 19 Jun 2026 Christoph Carnehl, Bocconi University, is visiting CES 15 Jun – 17 Jul 2026 Kristian Behrens, Université du Québec à Montréal, is visiting CESifo 15 – 19 Jun 2026 Menusch Khadjavi, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, is visiting CESifo 15 – 19 Jun 2026 Denvil R. Duncan, Indiana University, is visiting CESifo 15 – 26 Jun 2026 Myra Mohnen, University of Ottawa, is visiting CES 15 Jun – 31 Jul 2026 Deborah Cobb-Clark, University of Sydney, is visiting CES 22 Jun – 3 Jul 2026 Germain Gauthier, Università Bocconi, is visiting CESifo 22 Jun – 3 Jul 2026 Dan Fetter, Dartmouth College, is visiting CES 29 Jun – 3 Jul 2026 Heidi L. Williams, Dartmouth College, is visiting CES 29 Jun – 3 Jul 2026 Jonathan Moreno-Medina, University of Texas, San Antonio, is visiting CESifo 29 Jun – 4 Jul 2026 Viviana Rodriguez, University of Texas, San Antonio, is visiting CESifo 29 Jun – 4 Jul 2026 Albert Jan Hummel, University of Amsterdam, is visiting CES 29 Jun – 10 Jul 2026 Olivia Bordeu, University of California, Berkeley, is visiting CESifo 6 – 11 Jul 2026 Maximilian Auffhammer, University of California, Berkeley, is visiting CESifo 6 – 12 Jul 2026 Michèle Belot, Cornell University, is visiting CESifo 13 – 18 Jul 2026 Ulrich Müller, Princeton University, is visiting CES 6 Jul - 18 Dec 2026 Andreas G. B. Ziegler, VU Amsterdam, is visiting CES 9 - 24 Jul 2026 Stefano Della Vigna, University of California, Berkeley, is visiting CES 13 - 31 Jul 2026 Ulrike Malmendier, University of California, Berkeley, is visiting CES 13 - 31 Jul 2026

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The Bulletin Board is where CESifo network members can post news and messages regarding conferences, workshops and journals that are of interest to the research community and to all CESifo Newsletter readers. If you have anything you would like to share, please feel free to contact us at services@cesifo.de.

VfS (Verein für Socialpolitik) Annual Conference 2026: “Behavioral Economics” University of Innsbruck (Austria) | 13 – 16 September 2026 Keynote speakers: Matthew Rabin (Harvard University), Ulrike Malmendier (University of California, Berkeley), and Lucia A. Reisch (Cambridge Judge Business School). Registration for the conference is open.

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